Ms Emma Underwood

Research project: Modelling the role of multiple global change drivers on future range shifts in a Biodiversity Hotspot

Abstract

Climate and land use land cover change (LULCC) are expected to greatly impact the future distributions of species, particularly in tropical regions. Climate change is anticipated to have the greatest influence at broad regional scales, while LULCC may drive and concentrate the impact of climate change at local scales, resulting in regional intensification of both these drivers of environmental change. One consequence of the coupled effect of climate and LULCC in tropical habitats is predicted to be widespread range shifts for many species across multiple taxa. There is little information about how the synergistic effects of multiple global change drivers will influence future range shifts. Equally, how the absence of dispersal corridors and landscape connectivity will influence species' movement through landscapes, and in turn, their ability to colonise new habitats which could execrate future gaps. The goal of this PhD is couple the latest in species distribution and spatial predictive modelling to improve our understanding of how biodiversity patterns in tropical regions will be affected by the synergistic effects of multiple global change drivers. The project will focus on future range shifts in plants on the island of Madagascar.